Microsoft is starting to auto-update Windows 10 Home, Pro users on 1803 or older to 1903

[steven36]

By Mary Jo Foley for All About Microsoft

 

Microsoft is starting to automatically update Windows 10 Home and Pro users on versions 1803 to 1903 using Windows Update, as officials said would happen.

 

 

Microsoft officials said last month that they were putting AI algorithms in place that would automatically update those on older variants of Windows 10 to 1903, the May 2019 Update via Windows Update. Today, July 16, is the day when this auto-updating process is kicking off, according to the Windows Update Twitter account.

As of today, Microsoft is starting to initiate the Windows 10 May 2019 Update (1903) for those with devices "that are at or nearing end of service and have not yet updated their device," Microsoft's documentation says. Microsoft officials said back in May that the company planned to do this starting in June, 2019.

"Based on the large number of devices running the April 2018 Update, that will reach the end of 18 months of service on November 12, 2019, we are starting the update process now for Home and Pro editions to help ensure adequate time for a smooth update process."

Note: The reason many devices are still on the April 2018 Update is at least in part because the Windows 10 18H2 Update (1809) was a buggy mess.

Microsoft's July 16 note says this process will be staggered, with officials prioritizing those devices "likely to have a good update experience and quickly put safeguards on other devices while we address known issues." Windows 10 Home and Pro users who get the 1903 update pushed to them will still have the ability to pause the update for up to 35 days, Microsoft notes.

As my ZDNet colleague Ed Bott noted today, business users who use the Semi-Annual/Semi-Annual Targeted options for updating, Microsoft will begin pushing to some business customers on older versions of Windows 10 the 1903 release next week, Tuesday July 23, 2019. As is the case with Windows Update, the business updating process will be staggered, with certain devices blocked if Microsoft determines the update experience may go bad.

Confused? You're not alone. The Windows 10 updating system is still messy and complicated. But unfortunately this may be -- at least in the near term, as TechRepublic notes -- as good as it gets.

 

Source

[Karlston]

Microsoft starts Windows 10's 1803-to-1903 forced upgrade

The company said it's starting the process of upgrading Windows 10 PCs running last year's April update and moving those PCs to the latest version of the operating system.

Microsoft / Thinkstock

Microsoft on Tuesday began upgrading Windows 10 PCs running the 14-month old 1803 with the latest refresh, the May 2019 Update, aka 1903.

 

"We are initiating the Windows 10 May 2019 Update for customers with devices that are at or nearing end of service and have not yet updated their device," Microsoft said on its Windows release health dashboard. "Keeping these devices both supported and receiving monthly updates is critical to device security and ecosystem health."

 

Windows 10 1803, which was released April 30, 2018, will drop off Microsoft's support list on Nov. 12.

 

In May, Microsoft announced that the forced upgrade would begin in "late June." It was unclear what delayed the 1803-to-1903 migration. (Computerworld had forecast that Microsoft would kick off upgrades on June 25, based on the firm's timeline and fact that it was the fourth Tuesday of the month and thus the final non-emergency delivery day. Oops.)

 

The move marks the first time Microsoft has started to upgrade Windows 10 Home and Windows 10 Pro personal computers since the April jumble of its update process. Rather than force consumers to accept each feature upgrade on the company's terms - since 2015, Microsoft had decided when each device was told to download and install a refresh - developers added a new "Download and install now" (DaIN) option to 1903, and refitted 1803 and 1809 with it as well.

 

DaIN lets users choose when to migrate from one version to another. If one does not apply DaIN, the current feature upgrade is not to be automatically downloaded and installed on the PC. The result: Windows 10 Home users could, for the first time, skip a feature upgrade by simply doing nothing. With DaIN, those running 1803 would be able to bypass the troubled 1809 by not choosing the option. (Under prior rules, Windows 10 Home users would have been forced to upgrade to 1809 before later moving to 1903.)

 

But Microsoft won't let people run a Windows 10 version indefinitely. Citing security, it promised that when the current feature upgrade neared end of support, the company would intervene by downloading the latest and ordering the PC to install it. That intervention is what Microsoft said has now begun.

 

"Based on the large number of devices running the April 2018 Update, [which] will reach the end of 18 months of service on November 12, 2019, we are starting the update process now for Home and Pro editions to help ensure adequate time for a smooth update process," the health dashboard top-of-page message read.

 

Although Microsoft did not say how far ahead of end-of-support it planned to kick off force upgrades when it first revealed the DaIN-related changes, it has started the process almost exactly four months before 1803's retirement. That time period seems a minimum, what with the large numbers of PCs still running 1803.

 

According to Windows app analytics vendor AdDuplex, a majority of measured Windows 10 devices - 58% of the total - was running 1803 on June 26. AdDuplex has tracked the abnormally high percentage of Windows 10 users running 1803 for months; as early as April, Computerworld concluded that Microsoft had given up on forcibly deploying its successor, 1809, and had decided to skip that problematic upgrade to move 1803 users straight to 1903.

 

That's exactly what Microsoft began Tuesday.

 

It's impossible to know when a specific PC running Windows 10 Home 1803 or Pro 1803 will be upgraded by Microsoft, but the health dashboard lists the issues - those the company is investigating, ones it has mitigated in some fashion and those it has resolved - that potentially block 1903 from being installed.

 

For example, for 1903 the dashboard listed a problem with the drivers for some Bluetooth transmitters made by Realtek and Qualcomm. While the item - "Unable to discover or connect to Bluetooth devices" - was listed as "Mitigated," the explanatory text said that "devices with affected driver versions for Realtek or Qualcomm Bluetooth radios ((would be blocked)) from being offered Windows 10, version 1903 ... until the driver has been updated."

 

 

 

Source: Microsoft starts Windows 10's 1803-to-1903 forced upgrade (Computerworld - Gregg Keizer)

[Karlston]

Reverse engineering the Win10 1803-to-1903 forced upgrade — coming soon to a PC near you

Having seen only a handful of promises, a couple of screenshots and a rapidly changing set of definitions, it’s hard to tell how Microsoft will actually push your Win10 1803 machine to 1903. Here’s what we’ve seen so far.

IDG Communications

After an initial comment that machines running Win10 version 1803 (the “Windows 10 April 2018 Update”) were about to be pushed to Win10 version 1903 (the “Windows 10 May 2019 Update”) in May, then in June, it now appears that the push is on in earnest. 

 

Per the Release Status Information page:

We are initiating the Windows 10 May 2019 Update [version 1903] for customers with devices that are at or nearing end of service and have not yet updated their device. Keeping these devices both supported and receiving monthly updates is critical to device security and ecosystem health. Based on the large number of devices running the April 2018 Update [version 1803], that will reach the end of 18 months of service on November 12, 2019, we are starting the update process now for Home and Pro editions to help ensure adequate time for a smooth update process.

The writing’s on the wall for version 1803 — the most widely used version of Win10. Microsoft’s going to stop patching it in November, and the push to get you off 1803 has begun.

What’s the beef with 1903?

Many people are using Win10 version 1903 without any problems. Some, though, are having a tough time. In particular, if you have a top-of-the-line Surface Book 2, you can’t get version 1903 — Microsoft has blocked it.

 

Given the underwhelming new feature set in 1903, and the fact that Microsoft hasn’t yet declared it suitable for paying customers (which is to say, enterprises), I continue to recommend that Win10 users hold off on the upgrade.

How this used to work, in theory

Once upon a time, less than a year ago, the ground rules for pushing Win10 upgrades were reasonably well understood. 

 

In Win10 Pro, Windows Update advanced options, you set “Choose when updates are installed” to Semi-Annual Channel to start the countdown clock ticking when Microsoft declared the next version worthy of deployment to organizations. Then you set “feature update” deferral to 90 or 180 or 365 — the additional days tacked onto the date when the new version hit SAC.

 

Microsoft has changed the Windows 10 update terminology so many times it’s hard to keep track of the settings, what they used to mean, and what they mean now. In this case, “Semi-Annual Channel” now means “wait an initial 60 days after the new version is released before applying the deferral” — nothing more, nothing less.

 

Microsoft has a hand-waving explanation of how waiting for “Semi-Annual Channel” is, in effect, equivalent to waiting 60 days after release. That’s simply not true, historically — CBB and SAC time lapses have ranged from 45 to 150 days — but Microsoft doesn’t seem to be unduly influenced by the facts.

 

In Win10 Home you had very little choice, other than setting your internet connection to metered, turning off Windows Update entirely (which I don’t recommend), or using a third-party program to block updates (your mileage may vary). 

How the push is supposed to work now, in theory

We know very little about Microsoft’s method for pushing Win10 1803 machines onto 1903. 

 

There’s an algorithm (cough AI, cough ML) for selecting Win10 1803 machines to receive this special four-months-early putsch. We’ve heard a lot about it. Remains to be seen if it’s any better than the upgrade-to-1809 algorithm, which led to borked machines and permanently deleted files.

 

There’s also a promise of a kinder, gentler approach to pushing updates — the “Download and install now” link promised in several Microsoft missives, illustrated with official screenshots, and so poorly documented it’s hard to tell what was intended. 

 

In the best of all possible worlds, folks with 1803 machines that are destined to be pushed to 1903 will be presented with the “Download and install” option and the upgrade algorithm will back off until the link’s clicked.

 

So far, that doesn’t seem to be happening. Raise your hand if that surprises you.

An analysis of the upgrade algorithm

Reports of the forced upgrade are just starting to roll in — as you would expect with a cough AI in control of the release.

 

@abbodi86 has undertaken an exhaustive analysis of Win10 1803 Pro with KB 4499183 installed — that’s the second cumulative update for May, and appears to include the pushy code. Here’s what he found:

• Using the Semi-Annual Channel Targeted (SACT) setting in advanced options, with 0 days “feature update” deferral, the machine is automatically upgraded to Win10 1903, no interaction required. The same thing happens if “feature update” deferral is set to anything less than 59 days. (That’s expected: Win10 1903 was released on May 21, and the tests were run on July 18, which is 58 days later.)
• Use SACT and 59 to 247 days feature update deferral results in the machine being pushed to 1809. Again, that’s expected, as 1809 was (re-)released on Nov. 13, 2018.
• Using SACT and 248 days or more, the machine stayed on 1803. For now, at least.
• Using Semi-Annual Channel (formerly “Current Branch for Business”) and 1 to 112 days of feature update deferral, the machine is pushed to Win10 version 1809. With 0 days, there’s no change, and with 113 to 365 days, there’s no change.

Keep in mind that the number of days changes. A deferral of 10 days on July 18 is equivalent to a deferral of 11 days on July 19.

 

It appears as if the last test result is the source of the warning about imminent pushes to 1903. If you’re set up with SAC and have 0 days feature update deferral, it looks like you’ll be eligible for a pushed upgrade starting today: May 21 + 60 days = July 19 or 20, depending on how you count.

Lucky you.

How the upgrade will progress

Here’s the part that concerns me the most because this forced-upgrade mess is going to happen to most Win10 users.

 

@abbodi86 reports that clicking “Check for updates” may not make any difference. Also, he can’t find any use of the “Download and install now” link.

 

Susan Bradley has a screenshot of an upgrade experience that’s, shall we say, suboptimal:

Susan Bradley

Susan Bradley

She was given the option to postpone the upgrade (“Schedule the restart”) by up to 35 days, but that’s it: 1803 is going away on this machine and — short of some Byzantine heroics — the machine’s getting pushed. That’s the bad news. The good news is that she was pushed onto Win10 1809, not 1903. 

Where next?

Microsoft hasn’t given us much indication of how this massive upgrade will proceed — we’re expected to trust the cough AI and follow instructions. We’ve seen, numerous times, how well that’s worked. The lack of the promised “Download and install now” link is particularly disturbing.

 

As @zero2dash notes, those of you running Win10 version 1803 set to Semi-Annual Channel and 120 days of feature update deferral (the settings I recommended for quite some time) are going to get pushed to 1809 on July 26. You won’t get pushed to 1903, thankfully, if the pattern holds true, but any version change is a wallop upside the head. 

 

At least we don’t appear to be headed to another GWX-style bloodbath. At the same time, though, we also have no clear explanation for the disappearing deferral settings in Win10 version 1903 Pro. And we don’t know if/how Microsoft will respect the Win10 1803 Pro deferral settings as we approach Nov. 12.

 

Be of good cheer. All of this will change again when Microsoft releases version 1909, the “cumulative update” feature update (wotta concept!) that’s essentially Win10 1903 Service Pack 1. Hold onto your hat.

 

Without a clear road map from Microsoft, we’re back to crowdsourcing individual experiences. You’re most welcome to add your observations, and learn from the travails of others, on the AskWoody Lounge.

 

Thx to @abbodi86, @PKCano, Susan Bradley, @zero2dash, @krzemien, @mcbsys, @NetDef and many more.

 

 

 

Source: Reverse engineering the Win10 1803-to-1903 forced upgrade — coming soon to a PC near you (Computerworld - Woody Leonhard)