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'Free' Windows 10 Has An Expensive Secret


Batu69

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Do you know what’s the single biggest driver in Windows 10 adoption? That it is Free. Truly, completely, 100% free as long as you own a genuine copy of Windows 7 or Windows 8 Home or Professional. Do you know what’s the second biggest driver of Windows 10 adoption? That it won’t be free after its one year anniversary on July 28th 2016 – so the message is you must be quick.

 

Except I’m willing to bet Microsoft MSFT -1.85% is pulling a fast one and the whole ‘it’ll get expensive’ argument is a myth. Here’s why…

 

The ‘Facts’

 

As it stands, what Microsoft is perpetuating is that after July 28th 2016, Windows 10 Home and Windows 10 Pro will cost $119 and $199 respectively. Reading the official Windows 10 home page this also seems to be the case:

 

“Yes, free! This upgrade offer is for a full version of Windows 10, not a trial. 3GB download required; internet access fees may apply. To take advantage of this free offer, you must upgrade to Windows 10 within one year of availability. Once you upgrade, you have Windows 10 for free on that device.”

 

And yet what Microsoft hasn’t actually said is the most obvious point: that after this free offer Windows will revert to the standard asking price. Interestingly that isn’t actually written anywhere in the small print. Instead everyone has just assumed that will be the case.

 

Windows 10 update prompts are even removing all obvious options to decline. Image credit: Hayden Dingman ‏(@haydencd)

Windows 10 update prompts are even removing all obvious options to decline.

In fact on the numerous occasions I’ve actually asked Microsoft to spell out precisely what will happen after the free Windows 10 offer expires, it has responded with one of two responses: 1. This hasn’t been announced yet, or 2. No comment.

 

So why so secretive?

Read more – Massive Windows 10 Update Has 10 Great Secret Features

 

The Facts

 

Consequently what I believe is that no matter Microsoft’s original intentions (that the ‘free offer’ was genuinely for one year or a smoke and mirrors trick to encourage adoption) the scenario has now changed because of one thing: Adoption Rates. Right now Microsoft is missing them.

 

Supersite for Windows breaks the numbers down in detail, but in a nutshell Microsoft currently has little to no chance of reaching its target of having Windows 10 installed on one billion PCs within “2 to 3 years” of release.

 

At it stands at the time of publication, Windows 10 has been installed on 110m PCs and roughly one million more are being upgraded each day. Amazing as that figure sounds, it’s bad news for Microsoft as Supersite for Windows explains the operating system was doing 2.5m installs per day in its first month of release and 1.6m installs per day by the end of October.

 

'Get Windows 10' notifications and upgrade pressure is going to get a lot worse. Image credit: Gordon Kelly

‘Get Windows 10′ notifications and upgrade pressure is going to get a lot worse.

At the current rate of one million PCs per day Microsoft can’t make its two year one billion PCs target and would only just sneak inside its three year stretch target. But this relies on something impossible: that adoption rates will remain at one million PCs per day even during the two years after Windows 10 is no longer meant to be free.

 

There’s no chance whatsoever that this will happen and the July 28th 2016 free cut-off date would drive a stake through Microsoft’s ambitions. Of course the obvious riposte to this is: Why is it important Microsoft reaches one billion PCs? The answer: because it cannot afford not to.

 

Here’s why…

 

Why One Billion PCs

 

As I have already argued, right now Microsoft essentially is Windows 10. The operating system unites its PC, smartphone, tablet and gaming businesses which represent the future of the company. Right now PC sales are slowing and the others are struggling against the competition, but Windows 10 could potentially fix everything.

 

Truly massive adoption of Windows 10 spurs developers to embrace the operating system’s universal apps, which in turn populates the company’s smartphone, tablet and gaming sectors creating a vibrant end-to-end work and play ecosystem none of its rivals can match.

 

Windows 10 had to be given away free to spur this and Microsoft assumed a) that making it free would result in an adoption rate never seen before, though noting B) making it permanently free would take the pressure off users to upgrade quickly.

 

Windows 10 adoption rates have fallen behind Windows 7, despite it being free. Image credit: Statista

Windows 10 adoption rates have fallen behind Windows 7, despite it being free

What Microsoft didn’t foresee in a world where so many things are free is making Windows 10 free for a year wouldn’t be enough and the fact adoption rates have now fallen behind Windows 7 (when there were far fewer PCs into the world and it was never free) must be a shock to the company. So as much as users may be worried about the cost of Windows 10 after July 28th 2016, Microsoft must fear the consequences of charging for Windows 10 even more.

 

As such Microsoft finds itself in a situation where it either sticks to its guns and watches adoption tank after July 28th 2016 or offers some sort of U-turn/’surprise’ extended offer to keep adoption rates high.

 

Since the former is not an option, the latter looks the only way to go and it would explain why Microsoft remains so cagey about giving any sort of firm answer on something as simple as ‘What happens to Windows 10 after July 28th?’.

 

So I’m going to call it: Windows 10 is not going to become expensive. Microsoft’s future can’t afford it…

 

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thanks for the heads up.

 

nsanedown had a post long time ago about after the 1 year the user needed to pay to continue using windows 10

 

seems that post was true and thats makes sense. normaly microsoft doesnt give windows as a freebie

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Ah, I love that chart. Just look at the line for Windows 7.

 

Why can't the guys at MS learn from their mistakes before committing new ones?

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9 minutes ago, vibranium said:

Why can't the guys at MS learn from their mistakes before committing new ones?

Because, they wouldn't have been

M$

IF they had learn from their mistakes.

 

:D

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That post is not true if you say its going to cost money to continue using it wheres your proof you have none.  If you upgrade to windows ten within a year you have windows ten.  The only way you would have to pay for it is if they decided to move to recurring payment subscription model (like what there doing with office threesixtyfive) and no one has proof that they are going to do this yet.

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1 hour ago, Holmes said:

That post is not true if you say its going to cost money to continue using it wheres your proof you have none.  If you upgrade to windows ten within a year you have windows ten.  The only way you would have to pay for it is if they decided to move to recurring payment subscription model (like what there doing with office threesixtyfive) and no one has proof that they are going to do this yet.

I also agree to this and this is what we know so far. If you upgrade within a year, which is for free, then you have a lifetime license on that device.

I don't want to imagine what would happen if they recall all those free given licenses after a year. Everybody would pissed at them and that's to bad for the company.

 

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6 minutes ago, venejo said:

If you upgrade within a year, which is for free, then you have a lifetime license on that device.

 

 

Don't be naive, M$ just wants market share, and your money.

 

Who can guarantee that in Fall 2016 M$ doesn't suddenly introduce "10.1" with another batch of killer features?

 

At this stage, probably only a handful M$ staffers know the grand master-plan, 2016 and beyond.

 

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THis is not a MMORPG like world of warcraft where you have to pay for expansions.  Windows ten users got threshold two for free and most likely redstone is going to be free to.  If anything is going to be ten point one its going to be redstone or they could decide to windows ten differently then windows eight and not add a point one onto ten could simply call it windows ten redstone.

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3 minutes ago, Holmes said:

THis is not a MMORPG like world of warcraft where you have to pay for expansions.  Windows ten users got threshold two for free and most likely redstone is going to be free to.  If anything is going to be ten point one its going to be redstone or they could decide to windows ten differently then windows eight and not add a point one onto ten could simply call it windows ten redstone.

 

You're speculating, the original post was speculating, we are all speculating.

 

WaaS (Windows as a Service) is a new creature. No-one knows for sure where M$ is heading, except those at the top.

 

What we all can agree on is, M$ wants to maximize their profits and dominate the IoT market.

 

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I agree to disagree with that speculation.  I dont agree completely with the last line I agree to a extent like you said in the second line only microsoft knows the truth.

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At a later point i.e Windows 10.1 yes. MS will definitely ask for our money but not on this as is today.

Remember this product (for me) it's still in Beta. As you can see day by day it's changing by newer builds and cumulative patches.

Not to mention also its mobile version which I follow closely.

For now we are their best "beta" or "gamma" testers if you like!

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That article reads more like FUD than speculation; a click-bait. I don't know why we get so much of them in this forum.

 

Windows 10 is a free UPGRADE for those who have a genuine windows 7 or 8.1 copy IF they upgrade in the first year and MS clearly states that it's not a trial. Also, if there turns out to be a 10.1, then I don't see why that wouldn't be a free upgrade too. After all, 8.1 was also a free upgrade for 8. Even if the upcoming version upgrades turn out to be not free, it won't mean that your existing windows 10 will cease to be free. You already got it.

 

Windows 10 is NOT free, even today, if you get a full retail copy.

 

P.S. Don't you think it's time to stop writing M$? It's very childish. You could also write appl€ and googl€, and the former surly deserves it, but we know better.

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Quote

Windows ten users got threshold two for free and most likely redstone is going to be free to.  If anything is going to be ten point one its going to be redstone or they could decide to windows ten differently then windows eight and not add a point one onto ten could simply call it windows ten redstone.

Remember Windows 98? I bought Windows 98, and it was Shiite. And what did Microsoft do to correct the plethora of issues inherent in Windows 98? Well for me, I had to go out and BUY Windows 98 SECOND EDITION!!!! So there is a history of Microsoft doing exactly that.

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35 minutes ago, PistalPete said:

Remember Windows 98? I bought Windows 98, and it was Shiite. And what did Microsoft do to correct the plethora of issues inherent in Windows 98? Well for me, I had to go out and BUY Windows 98 SECOND EDITION!!!! So there is a history of Microsoft doing exactly that.

in fact Microsoft don't have good track record  98 windows  was crap 98 windows se was OK .Windows me was crap , Windows XP  was good , Win vista was bad , Windows 7 was good , Windows 8x was not really bad just people didn't like it because it didn't have a start menu . In fact the only thing good about windows 10 I seen was it has DX 12 witch most windows users don't have because they installed it on a old pc that was not made for windows 10.

 

I don't  really know if it will be like windows 98  or not like Homes said that's just speculation Microsoft says you will get  some type of updates for it tell October 14, 2025 .

http://windows.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/lifecycle

 

I do know this by the time 2020 hits. this is when end life for windows 7 is also  comes , if windows 10 is still getting new features you will have buy it  to get them.

 

Something don't add up the press says there will be no windows 11 but Microsoft has listed the end of life for windows 10 for October 14, 2025

 

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Here's my guess - Remember how they said Windows 10 would be the last version of Windows and after that it would just be known as "Windows"? At some point they will stop releasing updates to 10 and offer yearly subscriptions to the new "Windows" - just like the AV companies. And since you can't turn off updates to 10 - have fun with those incessant nags!

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12 minutes ago, Whoopenstein said:

And since you can't turn off updates to 10 - have fun with those incessant nags!

That's not really true if you don't want no more updates at all you can disable update service . Microsoft  don't want its users going back  to old windows no ways they made that mistake once with XP . If  they kill updates it will be after win 8.1 no longer gets them  like October 14, 2025. Then maybe a Windows 10 SE

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You guys misunderstood what a "Free upgrade for a year" means.

It doesn't mean that you will have to pay to continue using Windows 10 after a year. It means that everyone has one year to decide if they want to avail of free upgrade. If you missed the one year period and you decided to upgrade your Windows 7 or 8, then you will have to pay. But if you took advantage of the free upgrade, it's yours for free for the life of the device/PC (Windows 10 cannot be transferred to another PC).

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15 minutes ago, Whoopenstein said:

Who's to say how long they'll update Windows "10"? Did they ever promise anything? I'm not sure - just asking.

Micosoft has gave at lest 10 years or more to all of its products since xp that started in  2001 . In fact  its in writing  they will give you updates for windows 10

 

Quote

 

End of support

End of support refers to the date when Microsoft no longer provides automatic fixes, updates, or online technical assistance. This is the time to make sure you have the latest available update or service pack installed. Without Microsoft support, you will no longer receive security updates that can help protect your PC from harmful viruses, spyware, and other malicious software that can steal your personal information. For more information go to Microsoft Support Lifecycle.

Windows 10, released in July 2015 **

End of mainstream support  October 13, 2020

End of extended support October 14, 2025

 

http://windows.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/lifecycle

There's a lot of fake news out there sometimes its Microsoft spreading  it sometimes it's the press and not Microsoft.  Its one of those things ,  we have to wait and see about we cant read Microsoft's minds .Before  Microsoft says this for sure its just gossip .

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, steven36 said:

There's a lot of fake news out there sometimes its Microsoft spreading  it sometimes it's the press and not Microsoft.  Its one of those things ,  we have to wait and see about we cant read Microsoft's minds .Before  Microsoft says this for sure its just gossip .

 

Absolutely. Nobody knows for sure. Those who say they do should volunteer to be CEO.

 

We know M$, in the last year, have been going back and forth on certain matters. There are hints that powerful people behind the scenes don't agree about where to go next. So even they may be adapting as circumstances change.

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25 minutes ago, vibranium said:

 

Absolutely. Nobody knows for sure. Those who say they do should volunteer to be CEO.

 

We know M$, in the last year, have been going back and forth on certain matters. There are hints that powerful people behind the scenes don't agree about where to go next. So even they may be adapting as circumstances change.

Well for me it don't matter what they do I have windows 8.1 witch will have updates almost as long as windows 10 will .  There's always Linux and you can buy you a game console to play games on.  We already know Microsoft are not Honest  . But I'm more interested in  a  solution to the problem in the long term . Then seeing the same good and bad press  about the same software over and over and people praising it and complaining about it . Just think  if there is no windows 11 we have to listen to nonsense  for the next 20 years when  it got old to me after a few months of reading it. I tired windows 10 for over 90 days i didn't get any extra benefit from it. But  that don't mean others  wont . Everyone is not the same if we was the world would be boring .

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Microsoft's Windows 10 installation numbers are skewed.  They only take the number of installs they don't track (or if they do they don't reveal) the rollbacks.  Since July 29 I have done over 200 rollbacks personally, emailed instructions to do a rollback to over 1000 requestors and have personally installed Windows 10 at least 50 times on test systems that were then wiped and reimaged with Windows 7 or 8.1.  And I know techs that have done many more rollbacks than I have.  At this point in time I don't care what Microsoft does since Windows 10 belongs in the same class as 98, Me, Vista, 8, and Bob, that is shit that should have never been released.

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3 minutes ago, straycat19 said:

Microsoft's Windows 10 installation numbers are skewed.

 

And they quote the deceptive Windows 10 "installation numbers" instead of the best statistic of all "market share" because Windows 10 has dismal market share when compared to the Windows 7 and 8.1 combined market share. Windows 7 and 8.1 users are Microsoft's main market for Windows 10.

 

Quoting Windows 10 market share would highlight the paltry percentage of Windows 7 and 8.1 users who have upgraded (and the large percentage who continue to resist Microsoft's nagging, bullying, forcing, and bribery). I bet the GWX Control Panel has a much larger install base than Windows 10, and that pretty much says it all.

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First of all its holmes not homes and windows ninetyeight second edition was not trash stray first edition was trash second edition is fine.  I dont think there going to name windows ten redstone second edition each year they try new nomenclatures.  Windows ten is not one of the releases of windows that shouldnt exist like I have said get past all the bullshit and your fine.

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